Cripes, this is just terrible:

Under an MYF scheme, funding paylines—which determine the percentile (or rank) score needed for a study to receive funding—will plummet regardless of field of study or national funding priorities. For example, the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (NIDDK) projects its payline for FY25 will drop from the 12th percentile to somewhere between the 5th and 9th percentile. This drop in payline means 25 to 60 percent fewer funded studies. For the National Cancer Institute (NCI), the payline plunge is worse: dropping from the 10th percentile in FY24 to an estimated 4th percentile this year. Internal estimates from the National Institute on Aging (NIA) and the National Institute on Mental Health (NIMH) look similarly dismal, with the number of fundable grants projected to fall by a factor of 3 or 4 compared to last year.

Paylines dropping to the 5th percentile means that out of 100 grants submitted, FIVE get funded.  This will just...I mean, devastate is not too strong a word.  Who would want to go into a profession where you have a FIVE PERCENT chance of success?

Also, I know no citation is given for those numbers, but I can guess where they came from, and I'll just say:  not all heroes wear capes.  They also sound about right.  Do a search for "NIH paylines" and you'll find Institute numbers that have already been reported.  Then game out in your head how those numbers will change with this new funding system.  Yeah.  Dire.